Braves, Brewers conclude set at Turner Field

Baseball Betting Lines

07/18/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Atlanta Braves are shooting for a split of a four-game series with the Milwaukee Brewers Sunday afternoon, when the two ballclubs wrap up a lengthy set from Turner Field.

The Braves have dropped two in a row and three of four games since a four-game winning streak and were beaten, 6-3, in Saturday's contest. Tim Hudson was aiming for his 10th win of the season, but was rocked for six runs, including five in the seventh inning, in 6 2/3 innings to fall to 9-5 on the year.

"I wasn't nearly as crisp as I would have liked to be in the seventh," Hudson said after the game.

Matt Diaz hit a two-run homer and Eric Hinske added a solo blast for the Braves, whose lead in the NL East slipped to 4 1/2 games ahead of Philadelphia. The New York Mets are five games behind the Braves.

Struggling Braves starter Derek Lowe gets the nod this afternoon and has lost three straight trips to the hill. He is only 1-4 with a 4.22 earned run average in his last seven starts, with the Braves going 2-5 over that period.

Lowe last pitched in Sunday's 3-0 loss against the Mets and allowed two runs on eight hits over 5 1/3 innings, falling to 9-8 in 19 starts to go along with a 4.35 earned run average.

The right-hander, who is 6-3 in nine home starts this season, beat Milwaukee back on May 12 at Miller Park with six innings of two-run ball in his team's 9-2 win. He is 4-1 in 10 career games (8 starts) against the Brewers.

Milwaukee is playing good baseball right now and will try to win its second straight series today after sweeping Pittsburgh in three games prior to taking two of three matchups so far with the Braves.

Chris Narveson threw six innings of two-run ball and John Axford struck out two batters over 1 1/3 innings of relief for his 11th save. Prince Fielder homered to lead off the decisive seventh inning and Corey Hart stroked a three-run double to highlight the frame.

The game got a little heated as Fielder led off the eighth. The first pitch from Atlanta reliever Jonny Venters sailed over the head of the All-Star first baseman. Home plate umpire Angel Hernandez immediately issued a warning to both benches, but the lefty's next pitch drilled Fielder in the back, resulting in an ejection for him and Braves manager Bobby Cox.

"I was just trying to go right at him," Venters said. "The first one was a breaking ball and it got away from me a little bit. The second pitch was a sinker and it just ran away from me. Unfortunately, it hit him. There was nothing intentional about it. It was a three-run game."

Milwaukee will visit the Pirates for four games after this set and will hand the ball to Manny Parra on Sunday. Parra is just 3-6 with a 4.65 earned run average in 26 games, nine of which have been starts, this season. He was 2-0 in three outings before losing to San Francisco the previous time out on July 8 at Miller Park.

Parra was shelled for six runs -- four earned -- and 10 hits in five innings and has now lost three of his last five decisions. The lefty is 0-1 with an 8.10 ERA in two relief appearances against the Braves this season and is 0-1 in four career games (2 starts) in this series.

The Braves had won five straight and seven of their last eight versus the Brewers before losing on Friday.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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FOOTBALL BETTING LINES

NFL Football Sports Betting

Two playoff teams from 2007 take center stage on the NFL Network Sunday night in a Week 2 NFL betting match-up when the (0-1) New England Patriots betting head south to Florida for a contest with the (1-0) Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

New England HC Bill Belichick couldn’t care less about the way his team plays in the preseason. With a chance to tie last week’s game with the Baltimore Ravens betting, He elected to go for the two-point conversion and outright victory. The conversion failed, and the Pats ended up falling to the Ravens by a 16-15 final count.

New England rolled off twelve unanswered points to give it a chance at securing the victory, but it never threatened to cover the 3.5-point spread. NFL bettors saw this one coming, as they bet the Ravens down from +6 to +3.5 as the week progressed. QB Tom Brady didn’t take part in the Patriots first preseason clash, but could see action this weekend.

His three replacements all put up embarrassing numbers. They went a combined 17 for 33, and threw three interceptions and no touchdowns. The New England defense was encouraging, as they held the Ravens to 2/12 third down conversions and surrendered just ten first downs. That ‘D’ should be bolstered with the addition of former Bucs and Denver Broncos betting safety John Lynch, who could make his Patriots debut on Sunday against his former mates.

HC Jon Gruden had to be impressed with the way his Bucs played on both sides of the ball in their dominating 17-6 victory over the Miami Dolphins in Week 1’s NFL pre-season betting action. Bucs bettors were quite happy with the effort, as they made a mockery of the fact that they were underdogs in the game.

The logjam at the quarterback position didn’t get any easier to separate for Gruden, as all four of his QBs had positive experiences in the first exhibition of 2008. The four combined to complete 28 of their 40 passes for 204 yards and a touchdown, and that was without starting QB Jeff Garcia in the lineup.

RB Michael Bennett had 19 carries and four receptions, totaling 90 yards and a touchdown. Expect to see more of Bennett, Kenneth Darby, and Earnest Graham, as they all compete for playing time with Warrick Dunn in the backfield this season. Defensively, the Bucs recorded four sacks and held the Fins offense in check all day.

First round draft pick Aqib Talib was impressive in the secondary, recording a tackle and two pass defenses in his debut. Don’t be surprised to see Talib in the starting lineup opposite Ronde Barber for the Bucs in ’08.

The betting trends suggest that NFL bettors should be backing the Bucs in this intra-conference exhibition.

These two teams hooked up last year in Tampa Bay, with the Bucs winning that game 13-10. The Buccaneers have only lost one preseason game at home dating back to the beginning of the ’05 preseason. The Patriots have had a mixed bag of results in their recent exhibitions. They have gone 2-2 ATS and SU each of the last three years.

New England currently sits as modest 1-point favorites in this preseason showdown with the ‘total’ now sitting at 34.5.

You can find these lines and all of the NFL betting lines , so be sure to login and get your wagers down before kickoff!

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines .
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