This Week in Auto Racing July 9 - 11

Autoracing Betting Lines

07/06/2010 - Joliet, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It's a busy weekend of racing, as the NASCAR Sprint Cup and Nationwide Series run under the lights at Chicagoland Speedway. The Camping World Truck Series returns to action at Iowa Speedway, and Formula One revs it up in Silverstone, England with the British Grand Prix.

NASCAR

Sprint Cup Series

LifeLock.com 400 - Chicagoland Speedway - Joliet, IL

After a spectacular fireworks show on and off the track and tempers flaring in the garage last Saturday night at Daytona International Speedway, it's time for the Sprint Cup Series to kick off the second half of its 36-race season this weekend at Chicagoland Speedway.

Kevin Harvick widened his points lead after an impressive win in the 400-mile race at Daytona. Harvick survived a rash of accidents, including the "big one" that involved 19 drivers, and then held off Kasey Kahne and Jeff Gordon in a two-lap overtime finish for his second Cup victory this season.

Chicagoland has been one of Harvick's better tracks, where he has scored six top-10 finishes, including two victories, in nine starts. He won the first two races on this one-and-a-half-mile track from 2001-02.

"We got to do some of the very first testing at Chicago, and we've always run well there," Harvick said. "Our packages have evolved over time from a setup standpoint year to year, so we always run well there and look forward to going back. I think the mile and a half tracks have been a strong point of ours this year."

He's right. Harvick has finished no worse than 11th in the four races held on mile and a half tracks so far this season -- Las Vegas, Atlanta, Texas and Charlotte.

Harvick and Tony Stewart are the only drivers with multiple victories at Chicagoland, with Stewart winning there in 2004 and '07.

Heading into Chicagoland, Harvick holds a 212-point advantage over new second- place man Jeff Gordon, who finished third at Daytona.

Gordon currently has a 47-race winless drought, which matches his career-long stretch. He also went the same number of races without a win before his last victory came in April 2009 at Texas.

"I'm excited that we're second in points, but I'll be honest, all I look at is where we are with wins right now," Gordon said. "When you're positioned well in the Chase, like we are currently, then it comes down to wins and being seeded for when that Chase comes around.

"I think these top fives that we've had here recently build momentum to get us an opportunity to get us those wins. So that's really more what's on our mind right now. It's about what we've got to do to win a championship. I feel like we've got to get a few wins before that Chase starts."

Gordon, who won at Chicagoland in 2006, is expected to make his 600th career and consecutive start at Chicagoland. The four-time series champion made his first start in the 1992 season-finale at Atlanta, and has not missed a race since then.

While Gordon climbed to second, his Hendrick Motorsports teammate Dale Earnhardt Jr. moved up two spots to 11th in the standings. Earnhardt Jr. steadily has worked his way back into the top-12 with finishes of 11th or better in the last four races, including a fourth-place run at Daytona. He is 57 points ahead of 12th-place Carl Edwards with eight races remaining before the championship Chase begins in September at New Hampshire.

"We're getting a little bit more lucky than I would like," Earnhardt Jr. said. "You don't want to make the Chase on just pure luck, because you ran well. We've been running good."

Hendrick driver Mark Martin is now outside the top-12. Martin has finished 14th or worse in the last five races, and dropped from 10th to 13th in the rankings since then. He trails Edwards by 39 points.

Martin won last year's race at Chicagoland. He led a track-record 195 laps, but had to hold off Gordon after the final restart with just two laps to go for his fourth win of the 2009 season.

One year ago, Martin trailed then 12th-place Kasey Kahne by 65 points. Martin made it into the Chase, and by virtue of his series-leading five wins, was awarded the top-seed. He finished the season second to champion Jimmie Johnson in points.

Johnson, currently third in points (-225), is tied with Denny Hamlin for most wins so far this year with five each.

This season, Johnson has checked off Bristol (March) and Sonoma, CA (June) from his list of tracks where he had yet to win. Could Chicagoland be the next one taken off the list. He sure would love to do it, particularly for crew chief Chad Knaus, who hails from nearby Rockford, IL.

"Chad has asked me since I won in California for my first race if we could win his home state so he could experience that," said Johnson, a native of El Cajon, CA. "We have been very close. I gave one up to Kyle [Busch] on a late restart a couple of years ago. Last year, we led a ton of laps, but it just didn't close at the end. Things get away from us. I feel like we've got a good chance there, and certainly hope to. It's nice to cross off these tracks that I haven't won at."

Forty-seven teams are on the preliminary entry list for the LifeLock.com 400.

Nationwide Series

Dollar General 300 - Chicagoland Speedway - Joliet, IL

Danica Patrick once again will get plenty of attention in NASCAR this week. Not only is Patrick making her fifth Nationwide Series start, but she's also competing in her home state of Illinois.

Chicagoland Speedway is located almost 120 miles southeast of Patrick's hometown of Roscoe, IL.

This track is not an unfamiliar place for Patrick, who has competed in five IZOD IndyCar Series races here. Patrick's third and most recent IndyCar pole came at Chicagoland during her rookie season in 2005. She's finished no worse than 12th here.

Will previous track experience at Chicagoland help her on Friday night?

"It's always quite different in a stock car," Patrick said. " I don't think there's any way that being familiar with the track can hurt me. But it's really about me learning what it takes for me in a stock car to be happy on the track, to be comfortable, to get the most out of myself."

Patrick continues her learning curve in NASCAR, and it has been a challenge.

Two weeks ago at New Hampshire, Patrick competed in her first Nationwide race in four months. Patrick made contact with Morgan Shepherd and then hit the wall in the opening laps. She completed the race, but finished five laps behind in 30th place.

Patrick has struggled somewhat in IndyCar this year, as she currently sits 11th in points. Earlier this week, Patrick started 21st and finished 20th in the at Watkins Glen, NY. She finished second in June at Texas, which is her best run since her first victory in the series came two years ago in Japan.

The 300-mile Nationwide race at Chicagoland will feature 14 Sprint Cup regulars, including Joey Logano, the defending race winner, and his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate, Kyle Busch, who has six Nationwide wins so far this season.

Last year at Chicagoland, Logano passed Busch for the lead just before a caution for debris came with 15 laps remaining. While Busch and the other leaders pitted for new tires, Logano's crew chief, Dave Rogers, elected to keep his driver on the track.

With older tires, Logano impressively held off Busch during the final eight laps for his third Nationwide win of the season. Logano and Busch combined for 174 laps led in the 200-lap event, with Logano leading the most with 96.

Forty-eight teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Dollar General 300.

Camping World Truck Series

Lucas Oil 200 - Iowa Speedway - Newton, IA

After a three-week hiatus, the Camping World Truck Series returns to action this weekend at Iowa Speedway. Iowa kicks off a nine-week stretch of racing in the series.

Todd Bodine currently holds a 55-point lead over Aric Almirola, who won the most recent truck race on June 12 at Michigan. Almirola claimed his first career truck win in May at Dover.

"We've been on a roll here lately," Almirola said. "It would be awesome to leave Iowa with another trophy this year. We were competitive there last year. We ran second, and I felt like we had a good truck, but we weren't good enough to win. We were just good enough to run second."

Mike Skinner won the 2009 inaugural truck race at Iowa. Skinner led all but 20 of the 200 laps, but had just enough fuel remaining to hold off Almirola in a four-lap shootout to the finish. Almirola's second-place run was his career- best finish in the series at the time.

"I feel really confident going back there, and if everything plays out right, you never know what could happen," Almirola added.

David Starr is expected to make his 250th career start at Iowa. Starr, who made his first truck start in 1998 at Phoenix, will become the fourth active driver to reach this milestone. He will join Rick Crawford, Dennis Setzer and four-time series champion Ron Hornaday Jr.

"I've been very fortunate and blessed that I have been racing at this level for this long," said Starr, who drives the No.81 Toyota for Randy Moss Motorsports. "To make it to 250 is very cool, but what I really want to do is make at least 250 more starts after that."

Thirty-eight teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Lucas Oil 200.

FORMULA ONE

British Grand Prix - Silverstone Circuit - Silverstone, England

The British Grand Prix will be homecoming event of sorts for many Formula One teams this weekend. McLaren, Red Bull Racing, Mercedes GP, Williams, Renault, Force India, Lotus Racing, and Virgin Racing are all based in the United Kingdom.

With nine of 19 grand prix completed this season, the battle is heating up between McLaren and Red Bull Racing in both the drivers' and constructors' championships.

Lewis Hamilton from McLaren currently holds the points lead, but Red Bull Racing's Sebastian Vettel has gained ground on Hamilton after winning the European Grand Prix last week in Valencia, Spain.

Hamilton won the British GP during his 2008 F1 title season.

"To be leading the world championship going into my home race is a fantastic feeling," Hamilton said. "I know very well the effect of people-power around here.

"In 2007, when I got pole position, I vividly remember driving around on my slowing-down lap and I could hear the noise of the crowd over the engine. And in 2008, in those terrible, wet conditions, nobody lost heart or faith, and they kept waving their flags and banners for me on every single lap."

Hamilton has accumulated 127 points so far this season, while his teammate and British compatriot Jenson Button is just six points behind.

"Two Brits heading into the British Grand Prix first and second in the championship, we couldn't really wish for anything better," said Button, the defending world champion.

Vettel, currently third in points (-12), won last year's British GP. Vettel started on the pole and relinquished the lead only when he pitted for the final time. The young German finished a whopping 15 seconds ahead of teammate Mark Webber to give Red Bull a one-two finish.

"Silverstone is a very nice grand prix, with a little tradition, and obviously, we had a very good race there last year, with a 1-2 finish," Vettel said. "It's the home race for Red Bull Racing.

"A lot of people will be coming from the factory to see the cars, which surely is something special. They basically work on the cars everyday, more or less. They get the opportunity there to check everything out, and it's nice to get even more support, and obviously it's perfect if we could repeat the same result from last year."

Silverstone Circuit, located in Northamptonshire and Buckinghamshire, England, has hosted the British GP each year since 1987, and will continue to do so for the next 16 years.

Last December, the British Racing Drivers' Club (BRDC), and F1 president Bernie Ecclestone announced that Silverstone would remain as the site of the British GP. Silverstone had lost the rights to hold the event when Donington Circuit and Ecclestone agreed to a provisional deal in 2008. Donington Ventures Leisure Limited failed to generate enough funds to upgrade its track for an F1 race, forcing Ecclestone to terminate negotiations with the circuit's owners.

The British GP is the oldest event on the F1 schedule.

There have been several back-to-back winners of the British GP, with Scotsman David Coulthard the last to do it from 1999-2000. The pole sitter has won this race 22 of 60 times, but just three times in the past 12 years.

Vettel and Webber have given Red Bull eight poles so far this season.

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LINCOLN, Neb. -- Nebraska running back Marlon Lucky was hospitalized Monday for undisclosed reasons after Lincoln police responded to a call at his residence.

The Nebraska athletic department said in a release Monday that Lucky was admitted Sunday night.

MySportsbook.com has the Cornhuskers listed at +2500 to win the BCS National Championship odds.

A nursing supervisor at the hospital said all questions about Lucky were being referred to the athletic department. The athletic department said there would be no further comment from the department or Lucky's family.

A Lincoln Police spokesman said officers responded to a call at Lucky's residence 11:30 p.m. Sunday. The spokesman said he didn't know Lucky's condition at the time he was taken to the hospital.

Lucky, from North Hollywood, Calif., started six games last season as a sophomore and was the team's second-leading rusher, with 728 yards and six touchdowns. He also caught 32 passes for 383 yards. He averaged 19.1 yards on eight kickoff returns.

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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